Putin to Ukraine: Submit or Else

Military intimidation from Russia and, in reaction, threats of economic punishment from the West suggest there’s no end in sight to tensions over Ukraine, only stalemate at best and danger at worst.

“The threat on our western borders is, indeed, rising, as we have said multiple times,” President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia told ambassadors at the Kremlin on Wednesday.

Putin: Opening the door to invasion?

 Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bellicose actions over the past month both scare Ukraine and worry the US and its allies. He dispatched 120,000 troops and numerous armored groups to Russia’s border with Ukraine, including one large unit moved in from Siberia. Large numbers of transport trucks have been ferried just to the east of the Ukraine border, suggesting they could be used to quickly transport infantry across the frontier. And last weekend, Russia sent Buk anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine’s frontier.  A Buk shot down a Malaysian passenger aircraft in 2014 killing 298 people.

All that’s missing, a NATO defense official said, were sufficient supplies of ammunition, field medical facilities and fuel supply lines.

Putin and US President Joe Biden spoke via video connection last week, with the American urging Moscow not to go to war. Yet the talks triggered no pullbacks.

The Conflict Intelligence Team, an Internet research group that tracks Russian military moves said on the ground signs “allow us to conclude that despite the negotiations between Biden and Putin, the concentration of Russian troops in the areas bordering the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities continues.”

The United States and allies in the Group of Seven, have taken Russian moves as a sign of impending warfare. They warned that, “Military aggression against Ukraine would have massive consequences and severe costs.”

The “costs” of invasion for Russia would apparently be limited to new economic sanctions to supplement ones imposed in 2014. That’s when Russia first sent in troops into Ukraine and then supported and armed pro-Russian separatists.

All this gives the appearance of a 21st Century chapter of “March of Folly,” a 1980s book that chronicled historic miscalculations in disastrous wars, from Troy to Vietnam. The question now is whether the West is miscalculating Putin’s resolve.

Last week, Putin laid out Russia’s demands to resolve the faceoff: Ukrainian neutrality. Ukraine must give up aspirations to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and the United States must provide Russia with “reliable and firm legal guarantees” that Ukraine will never join.

As a sweetener, Putin could tolerate Ukraine participation in the European Union; it’s harder to declare EU membership a casus belli, though Putin, did so in 2014.

Alexander Baunov, senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center, said such a deal would require “a chain of actions and obligations that should lead to a Ukraine that is friendly and neutral, but not necessarily subordinate, to Moscow.”

There is an old example of a Western country that accepted neutrality at Moscow’s insistence: Austria.

Following World War II, the United States, United Kingdom, France and Russia occupied the country. Russia only agreed to pull out, along with the rest of WWII’s victorious powers, in 1955, when Austrian neutrality was guaranteed.

Austria enshrined neutrality in its own constitution and the country remains outside NATO to this day. However, it joined the European Union in 1995 without Soviet complaint.

There are big obstacles that make such an outcome more difficult if not impossible for Ukraine. First, the USSR did not bite off a chunk of Austria, whereas in 2014, Putin invaded and then annexed Crimea, which had until then been part of Ukraine.

Putin’s pan-Slavic credentials are at stake. Having declared that “Crimea is forever part of Russia,” Putin seems unlikely to give that piece of Ukraine it back.

Moreover, in many Russian minds, and certainly in Putin’s, Ukraine is an indigenous piece of the Slavic family; it should go hand in hand with Russia not the Europe that lies to the west. Last summer, Putin lamented that the “wall that has emerged between Russia and Ukraine in recent years, between parts of what is essentially the same historical and spiritual place, to my mind is our great common misfortune and tragedy.”

The 2014 invasion was nominally meant to block Ukraine’s effort to join the EU instead of Putin’s copycat Eurasian Economic Union. The issue then was not about prospective Ukrainian NATO membership. How would Putin need explain how he dropped the EU issue that appeared so important to him in 2014 and led to seven years of turmoil and death in Ukraine since then

US President Joe Biden might find it hard to surrender Ukraine’s decision-making to Russia over NATO. He is already being portrayed as a weak incompetent by critics over his botched withdrawal from Afghanistan. Adverse opinion will multiply exponentially if he is viewed as giving Putin a veto over who can join NATO.

If Russia gets to keep Crimea, as Putin undoubtedly would demand, would Biden be ready for the inevitable comparison to pre-WWII British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, who notoriously acquiesced to Hitler’s takeover of part of Czechoslovakia?

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was left out of the Biden-Putin talks, has rejected enforced neutrality, if solely on the grounds that Moscow can’t be trusted.

He noted that in 1991, Ukraine gave up its store of nuclear weapons to facilitate its split from the Soviet Union. In return, Ukraine received assurances “from Russia that our borders and our security will be respected,” Zelensky said.

“It is strange to hear the Russian side asking for any guarantees when so many promises have already been broken,” he declared.

Ukraine has taken steps to beef up its defense with American-made anti-tank missiles and drones from Turkey, to at least bloody a Russian advance. Ukrainian troops have also received training from US military instructors.

Officials in Kyiv despair of having an insufficient numbers of anti-aircraft equipment and would like NATO to supply some.

If it comes to war, a likely date for a Russian invasion depends on the weather, according to Air Force Times, an independent defense publication: Next month, probably, when swampy land in eastern Ukraine “will freeze…making it easy for Russian tanks to roll in.”

 

Daniel Williams

Published by Daniel Williams

I am a former correspondent who, for more than 30 years, did time in China, Southeast Asia, Central America, Mexico, the Middle East, Europe and Africa and covered wars that went from episodic to non-stop. My book, "Forsaken," about Christian persecution in the Middle East came out January, 2016. NextWarNotes is a news and analysis blog designed to fill gaps, provide background and think about what’s next. The name of the site comes from a 1935 article by Ernest Hemingway in Esquire Magazine called “Notes on the Next War,” in which he predicted the coming conflagration in Europe, told why it would happen and warned Americans to stay out.

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