Safe Exit for Ukraine Civilians Will Signal End Is Coming

Ukraine has agreed to consider a Russian plan to establish safe corridors for refugees to leave besieged cities. It’s both a humanitarian measure and one that foreshadows the takeover of the country by Moscow.

A damaged residential building.

Kyiv

Russia stepped up its vicious sieges of two major Ukrainian cities and will eventually launch major attacks on a pair of others in hopes of subduing an unexpectedly tenacious resistance to its invasion.

The Russians can undoubtedly succeed in conquering the cities” President Vladimir Putin has hundreds of armed vehicles and some 300,000 troops at his command, scores of jet bomber controlling the skies along with warships in the Black Sea.  All that is arrayed against the much smaller Ukrainian army and maybe 20 jet fighters.

The United States and its European allies have sent arms to Ukraine but expressed no desire to confront the Russian invasion with armies of their own.

Nonetheless, Ukrainian soldiers and allied militias have been able to slow Russian advances. Ukrainian men are filling beer bottles with gasoline to make Molotov cocktails while women fashion hand-sewn camouflage tapestries. That has forced Russian commanders to contemplate the downside of invading a city with its warrens of streets hiding determined enemies.

Moscow’s troops are having to turn to heavy bombardments on land and from the air to terrify cities into submission. The difficulties may explain why Russian negotiators met with Ukrainian officials Thursday on the border of Belarus and persuade them to establish safety corridors for refugees from besieged cities. A civilian exodus would make the urban areas  free zones. 

It was a tactic used in the 1999-2000 war against the breakaway province of Chechnya in Russia. To take the capital city of Grozny, Russia first shelled and bombed to provide a taste of the horrific possibilities to come. Then, they set up a civilian exit route, let refugees flee and then unleashed even heavier bombardments. Insurgents were either killed or fled under the cover of darkness.  

Putin has also ordered that news about the war be hidden from the Russian public. He shut down the country’s few remaining independent media outlets. So far, Moscow has put Russian deaths in the low hundreds and Ukrainian fatalities in the thousands; Ukrainian numbers are the mirror opposite—thousands of Russian dead and a few hundred Ukrainian.

Russia started its campaign of conquest by trying to take Kharkiv in the east. The country’s second largest city, it was supposed to be easy prey—Kharkiv contains a large ethnic-Russian population. But Moscow’s forces have had to step up bombardments in an effort to soften up resistance.

 Russia is heavily shelled the Black Sea port city of Mariupol in preparation for an invasion. It is defended by both the Ukrainian army and a nationalist militia known as the Azov Civil Corps.

Meanwhile, a forty-mile long convoy of tanks and armored vehicles await on a road north of Kyiv, the capital, which has endured periodic bombing and fighting on its outskirts. In the south, Russian ships are heading to Odessa, the country’s largest Black Sea port.

If and when Russia sweeps the country, the question will turn to how Putin will maintain control of the Ukrainian population of 40 million. In small localities already under Russian control, crowds of citizens have tried to block convoys with their bodies; a video showed a man lying on a street to hinder passage of an armored personnel carrier.

There could still be surprises for Putin. Sieges by powerful invaders can have surprising twists and turns.

In 1998 and 1999, the United States and allies routed Serbian forces from the breakaway region of Kosovo using air power. But for several weeks, the allies had trouble finding Serbian military targets to hit in Kosovo; the Serbians were good at playing hide-and-seek and creatively designing decoys that unknowingly NATO bombed.

US commander Wesley Clark tried to entice Kosovar separatists to join the fray on the ground. To get the Serbs out from hiding. They eventually did, but only after the Americans had already weakened the resolve of Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic by bombing Belgrade and other Serbian cities.

Clark decided to increase bombing inside Serbia. Some of the bombing were scandalously controversial: the allies hit the Chinese Embassy, Serbia’s radio and television headquarters and a civilian train on a bridge near the town of Nis. Seventeen people died.

In 1999, the Serbs left Kosovo, Kosovo later declared itself an independent state.

Even successful sieges plant the seeds of disaster for later. In 1982, Israel besieged Lebanon’s capital Beirut for three months. The Israelis wanted to crush the Palestine Liberation Organization headquartered there.

Israel’s air force freely bombed the city and its ships shelled it. Pilots went on aerial Arafat-hunts trying to kill him by bombing in and around the Beirut neighborhood of Fakhani, where the PLO was headquartered. The effort failed. The most scandalous target of the campaign was a hospital. Israelis did not get charged with war crimes. The army left Beirut and occupied southern Lebanon.

But the assaults on Beirut and occupation of the south engendered support for Hezbollah, a Shiite Muslim militia backed by Iran. Eighteen years after the 1982 war, Hezbollah, which used guerrilla tactics and roadside bombs on the Israelis, expelled the occupiers from South Lebanon.

Now, in Washington and European capitals, there is talk of aiding some sort of Ukrainian resistance if Russia takes the whole country.

Putin has hinted that the move would be dangerous. He said Thursday, as he has repeatedly in the past, that he considers Ukraine a part of Russia. By that logic, aiding insurgents would be an assault on Russia itself. He has already put his nuclear forces on alert over unfriendly statements by NATO officials. What would he do if the West supported an uprising in Ukraine that Russia considers its own?

 

 

Daniel Williams

Published by Daniel Williams

I am a former correspondent who, for more than 30 years, did time in China, Southeast Asia, Central America, Mexico, the Middle East, Europe and Africa and covered wars that went from episodic to non-stop. My book, "Forsaken," about Christian persecution in the Middle East came out January, 2016. NextWarNotes is a news and analysis blog designed to fill gaps, provide background and think about what’s next. The name of the site comes from a 1935 article by Ernest Hemingway in Esquire Magazine called “Notes on the Next War,” in which he predicted the coming conflagration in Europe, told why it would happen and warned Americans to stay out.

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